Risk/reward ratio and win rate: how they relate

5 min read

People often debate whether it matters more to win often or to win big when you win. The answer is that both matter at once, and there is a simple formula to combine them.

What the risk/reward ratio is

It is the distance to the target divided by the distance to the stop. If you enter at 1.0850, your stop is at 1.0820 (30 pips) and your target at 1.0910 (60 pips), the ratio is 1:2: you would win twice what you risk.

The break-even win rate

To avoid losing money you need to win at least 1 ÷ (1 + ratio). At a 1:1 ratio you need 50%; at 1:2, 33.3%; at 1:3, 25%. With a 1:0.5 ratio (winning half of what you risk) you need to win more than 66.7%.

Mathematical expectancy

Expectancy (in R) = win rate × ratio − (1 − win rate). If you win 40% of the time with a 1:2 ratio: 0.4 × 2 − 0.6 = +0.2R per trade. Over 100 trades risking 100 USD each, expected profit would be about 2,000 USD before costs.

If the result is negative, the strategy loses money in the long run even if it has winning streaks.

Do not force the ratio

It is tempting to move the target further away so the ratio “looks good”, but a target price rarely reaches lowers your win rate. The target should be based on real chart levels, and the ratio is the outcome, not the starting point.

Costs matter

Spread and commissions add to your loss and subtract from your gain. On trades with small stops they can change the real ratio a lot, so include them in your calculation.

Try your own numbers with the risk/reward calculator.

Educational content, not financial advice. Risk disclosure

Related tool

Risk/reward calculatorMeasure the R:R ratio, the win rate you need and your mathematical expectancy.

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